Igor Panarin, a political science expert from Russia, has predicted the disintegration of the United States into six pieces that will then join sides with other world powers.
According to the Wall Street Journal, Professor Panarin has had his theory for a decade, but has not gotten much academic recognition until now. It’s not because he does not like America, Panarin insists; rather, he bases his prediction on the recent political and economic state tin which the U.S. currently finds itself.
“There’s a 55-45% chance right now that disintegration will occur,” he says. He believes that mass immigration, moral decline, tremendous economic downfall would lead to a civil war next fall and collapse of the dollar. The United States will then fall into six groups around June or July 2010:
“The Californian Republic” would be a part of China or Chinese influence; the Northern states would form what he calls “The Central North American Republic” and would fall under Canada; “The Texas Republic” would fall under Mexico or Mexican influence; “Atlantic America,” including Washington, D.C., may align with the European Union; Hawaii would go towards either Japan or China; and Alaska would fall naturally with Russia.
“It would be reasonable for Russia to lay claim to Alaska; it was part of the Russian Empire for a long time,” says Panarin.
Even with the hope of President-elect Barack Obama fixing the economy, Panarin sticks by his theory, saying that “when spring comes, it will be clear that there are no miracles.”
Russia too would be affected negatively if the disintegration of the United States were to happen. It would gain more global power, Panarin beliefs, but its economy would suffer since the country is largely dependent on the dollar and trade with the U.S..
A U.S.-Russia relations expert, Panarin is a former KGB analyst who is now a dean of the academy for future diplomats at the Russian Foreign Ministry. He is also a university professor and a published author.
Since first presentation of the theory, the amount of attention and recognition has changed tremendously, WSJ wrote. In addition to scholarly discussions by local experts, Panarin has also gotten more state coverage, leading him to believe that people are taking his theory more seriously.
However, some experts in Russia believe otherwise. Sergei Rogov, director of the Institute of US and Canadian Studies thinks that Panarin’s theories don’t hold water, saying, “Crazy ideas are not usually discussed by serious people.”
Vladimir Pozner, a prominent Russian TV journalist agrees: the theory “reflects a very pronounced degree of anti-Americanism in Russia today. It’s much stronger than it was in the Soviet Union.”
Asked about the matter in a news conference, White House spokesperson Dana Perino said, “I’ll have to decline to comment.”
Still, Panarin sticks by his beliefs, despite some of the skepticism out there. He cites Emmanuel Todd, a political scientist from France who predicted the fall of the Soviet Union 15 years beforehand. Panarin said, “When he forecast the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1976, people laughed at him.”
Our Take:
The thought seems so apocalyptic, partly because the United States is practically the hegemon in today’s world. However, looking at the recent economic and political patterns that the U.S. has been in (plus this “recession” that we are in), Panarin’s theories may just hold some weight.
But since the U.S. is technically so powerful, it is not very logical to have disintegration as soon as the summer of 2010. Still, Panarin’s beliefs should not be so easily discarded. After all, the Soviet Union was once the leading global power, and it crumbled down in 1989.
