Without any atom of doubt, the last presidential election held in November 2016 was a time that will be forever embedded in history, and people around the globe are anticipating or clamoring for a glimpse of what will happen in the last hours of the November 2020 U.S election polls.
It’s easy to get lost and confused when it comes to political polls, especially in the last hours, due to their varying methodologies, averages, and intricacies. This is why College News will be providing you an insight into the current happening of the 2020 U.S election.
What do the polls say?
In the race for the presidential seat, Biden is currently on the frontline leading Donald Trump by about 10 percentage points considering national polls. According to Decision Desk HQ, which happens to be an election forecasting company, they predict that Biden has an 86.7% likelihood of winning the 2020 U.S election.
Nevertheless, if Biden wins the November election, his robust leads in several critique swing states would be the reason. It would include states like Pennsylvania, which Trump won in 2016 with less than 1% points.
Considering the recent state polls, Joe Biden has accumulated up to an average of 4.8% points in state polls. Some professional and reputable electoral forecasting companies, which include DDHQ, are of the opinion that Trump’s rival, Biden has a 74.5% chance of taking the lead of the Keystone State.
Taking a look at Florida State, Biden has an edge with a current lead against Trump. Donald Trump had claimed victory in Florida State during the 2016 elections with 1.2% points, 113,000 votes. But considering the recent turnout in Florida, DDHQ believes that Biden has a 63% chance of coming top in Florida polls.
Could the polls be wrong?
Yes. There is a good possibility that the polls could be “wrong” and may not have predicted the final electoral results correctly. The big question roaming on several minds during election night is, just how wrong were the polls?
Incorrect polling turned out to be one of the major critiques during the 2016 election against Hilary Clinton. Nevertheless, the polls have always been very close to the figures. For example, during the 2016 election, which featured Trump against Hilary Clinton, the national polls had outperformed with just two percentage points.
According to polling, which states are closest?
According to FiveThirtyEight, the states close in the race are Iowa, Georgia, Texas, Ohio, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In the states highlighted, Biden currently has the lead except in three states – Iowa, Ohio, and Texas, led by Trump.
Polling stats in swing states during the eve of the election:
A recent poll estimates that Trump is taking the lead in the Lone Star State with as little as one percentage points. If for any reason, Biden manages to flip Texas Democratic to his way, which hasn’t happened since 1976, he can be sure of an Electoral College victory.
Taking a close look out North Carolina, Biden seems to take the lead with an average of just 2 percentage points. Meanwhile, North Carolina turns out to be one state that Trump is desperately needs for his fight for reelection into office. Furthermore, absentee ballots will already have been validated before Election Day, which will ensure the votes are counted more promptly.
As we’ve earlier mentioned, Ohio is currently one of the states in which Trump takes the lead over the Democrats with an estimated average of 1.2 percentage points. During the 2016 November presidential election, Trump won Clinton with an average of 9.5 percentage points.
According to RealClearPolitics their estimates that Donald Trump is currently ahead of Joe Biden in Georgia polls with just 0.2 points. Ever since the time of President Bill Clinton in 1992, Georgia is one state that hasn’t voted for a Democratic candidate.
For Arizona, Biden currently takes the lead against Trump with 2.6 percentage average points in polls. Arizona was a state that Trump won in 2016 with 3.5 percentage points.
In Pennsylvania, Biden takes the lead against the Republicans with an average of 4.8 percentage points. Trump had won this state during the 2016 election, with 44,292 votes. Pennsylvania is one state Biden can’t afford to lose in his race for the presidential seat.
Lastly, for Wisconsin, Joe Biden currently takes the lead with an average of 8.2 percentage points in polls according to stats provided by FiveThirtyEight. During the 2016 U.S presidential election, Trump won Wisconsin with less than one percentage point in votes.
For a candidate to emerge as a winner, they must have received nothing less than 270 electoral votes.
Even as we stay glued during these last 24 hours of the polls, presidential nominees will have to pass through the final Electoral College in December to see the candidate that is declared the winner of the 2020 presidential election.